Revisiting Ontario’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets
| In May, 2010, the ECO released its second Annual Report on the progress of activities in Ontario to reduce or make more efficient use of electricity, natural gas, propane, oil and transportation fuels. Click here for more information on this report, including videos and communications materials. | ||
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There is unequivocal evidence that GHG concentrations in the atmosphere are rising at an alarming rate.
Preindustrial concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere are known to be about 280 parts per million (ppm)
and have more recently been measured with great precision on the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii
since March 1958. The average concentration of CO2 for that month 52 years ago was 315.71 ppm. In
March of 2010 the average was 391.26 ppm35 and rising at an accelerating rate which is presently about 2
ppm per year.
Article 2 of the UNFCCC states that the convention’s objective is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” The convention did not specify, however, what that level might be. In 2007, the international discussion on what might be a tolerable level to avoid dangerous climate alteration and species loss focused on stabilizing at 450 ppm CO2 . At that time it was thought that a concentration of 450 ppm would be exceeded by business-as-usual (BAU) by about 2040, thus giving some breathing room for a global response. Additional support for 450 ppm as a maximum came from studies of oceanic acidification by atmospheric CO2 which predicted that soluble calcium carbonate (CaCO3) levels would drop below saturation such that crustaceans could not produce shells and coral reefs could not grow.
In that 2007 policy context, Ontario set its GHG reduction targets (relative to 1990) of 6 per cent by 2014, 15 per cent by 2020 and 80 per cent by 2050. These are levels which the ECO has characterized as less than aggressive given current policy discussion at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and in recent scientific literature. It has become evident by analyzing paleo-climatic data that allowing the atmosphere to reach and maintain 450 ppm of CO2 would activate positive feedback mechanisms on climate warming such as ice sheet disintegration and release of methane from soils and ocean sediments on time scales which would be disruptive to humanity and other life forms this century. Climate models predict that the equilibrium state for earth at 450 ppm is ice free, a totally different world from that in which our civilizations have evolved.
So if a 450 ppm world is not feasible, what is? Regrettably, the same analysis also shows that the 390 ppm world we already have will generate unacceptable consequences. The changes that are occurring (sea level rise, glacial and ice sheet melting, ocean acidification, and coral reef loss) are all indications that the earth is not in energy balance. The ultimate impacts on climate and the biosphere that the 390 ppm atmosphere wil produce have not yet played out. The target must be lower; the best science indicates much lower.
The target for atmospheric equilibrium concentration of CO2 now recommended by an informed consensus of climate change scientists is 350 ppm. This of course is much lower than the present level, but there is still opportunity to avoid the worst scenarios. The same climate inertia of the oceans’ currents and ice sheet albedo that slow the deleterious effects of our 390 ppm atmosphere mitigate the impacts of overshooting 350 ppm and buy us time to reverse the GHG accumulation if that is indeed possible. So policy objectives to obtain a 350 ppm world are required and the urgency of reducing GHG emissions from all sources is higher than ever. Certainly the global community must find a way to put a price on carbon soon, but new tools to de-carbonize our economies also must be found. The major new component of policy imposed by a 350 ppm goal is that mechanisms that actually reduce the CO2 that is already in the atmosphere must be explored. Fortunately for Ontario opportunity exists in at least two areas.
An oft-ignored, yet significant, component to the atmospheric concentration of CO2 that now exists is the carbon that was released by the extensive deforestation that took place over the past two centuries and continues today. The extent of deforestation is something that can be reversed to some degree over the coming decades by reforestation on a wide-spread scale. Ontario has initiated some modest efforts in this regard but much greater opportunities exist. Ontario also has considerable expertise in this field that could be put to good use in international initiatives toward global reforestation.
Another option with significant potential for sequestering the carbon emissions of the industrial world is referred to as biochar]. Originally used by ancient peoples to improve poor soils, biochar (known as charcoal when made from wood) is one of the residual products of heating organic material in an oxygen-limited environment. This process, known as pyrolysis, can convert many other organic residues, such as those from agriculture, municipal waste streams, and forestry, into both a useful fuel (bio-oil) and biochar. The bio-oil can be processed into a fossil fuel alternative; the biochar component has two major benefits.
The first benefit arises from the fact that most of the carbon in biochar is stable for hundreds, even
thousands of years. It resists decomposition by microbes in the soil. In essence, the concept is one
of delaying the carbon cycle. Biological material that has been created by fixing atmospheric carbon
through photosynthesis ordinarily delivers its carbon back into the atmosphere when the organic material
decomposes. By delaying this decomposition, biochar effectively sequesters the carbon in soil. The
second benefit is also soil-related. Studies show that biochar, when added to soil, enhances nutrient
capacity, increases moisture retention and builds biological biodiversity, substantially improving fertility and
resilience.
Policy initiatives promoting reforestation and biochar sequestration would be useful and complementary tools within a global climate change mitigation strategy struggling to cope with a 350 ppm CO2 target. In recognition of the 350 ppm issue, the ECO believes that the CCAP targets identified in 2007, although useful as a starting point, need to be revisited in light of 2010 scientific information.
| Recommendation :
The ECO recommends that the Ontario government undertake a formal public review of its CCAP GHG targets in light of scientific evidence indicating concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere are unacceptably high. |
| Previous section: Broadening the Policy Discussion |
| Next section: The Role of Forest Biofibre |
Citing This Article:
Environmental Commissioner of Ontario. 2010. Annual Greenhouse Gas Progress Report 2009/2010: Broadening Ontario's Climate Change Policy Agenda. Toronto, ON : Environmental Commissioner of Ontario. pp. 10-11
